FY 2019-20: A fiscal nightmare and it’s scars in export

The Covid19 pandemic has put economies around the world in unimaginable situation. The 2019-20 fiscal year will probably go down in history as one of the hardest times the world went through. While the sufferings, loss of lives and livelihoods will always stay with us, the economy is recovering. The data for June 2020 does show some rays of hope. Countries around the world are slowly seeing the economy bounce back.

Like many other countries, Bangladesh suffered in the fiscal 2019-20. Jobs were lost, orders were cancelled, shipment delayed, in short export earnings took a plummet. In this article we analyzed Bangladesh’s nine years of export data (FY 2011-2012 to FY 2019-20) in order to see the scale of the impact of the pandemic. The report will present the overall scenario as well as country-wise scenario of export from Bangladesh.

Export scenario: Overall

Before the pandemic, Bangladesh’s export (goods) earnings gradually increased between FY 2011-12 to FY 2018-19. It went up from $24.2 billion in 2011-12 to $40.5 billion in 2018-19; an impressive nearly 70% increase in 7 years. During this period, export earnings growth has never been on the negative side. But, in 2019-20 it went down by 17%; from an impressive $40.5 billion in 2018-19 to an unimaginable $33.6 billion in 2019-20, almost $7 billion earning were lost. But growth adjusted actual loss can be up to $10 billion or more. Covid19 pushed the export earning so low that the earning in 2019-20 was even less than the earning in 2015-16. Which means, export earnings were literally pushed back four years by the ongoing pandemic.

Almost 60% of Bangladesh’s export earnings come from exports to USA, Germany, UK, Spain, France and Italy. The individual export scenario for these countries have been described below:

Export scenario: Bangladesh to USA

The United States is one of the biggest export markets for Bangladesh. Compared to 2018-19, more than $1 billion export was lost in the USA alone in the 2019-20 fiscal. Bangladesh’s exports in the US revolves around $5 billion to $6.5 billion. Export in 2019-20 is almost equal to the average export of the last 9 fiscal years.

Export scenario: Bangladesh to Germany

Export to Germany increased gradually within FY 2011-12 to FY 2018-19 without any negative growth. Bangladesh’s export to this European giant was $3.7 billion in 2011-12, after seven years of growth it stood at $6.1 billion in 2018-19. However, the Covid19 pushed it to $5 billion in 2019-20; an 18% decrease in the trade. In just one year $1.1 billion was lost from Germany. However, growth adjusted actual loss can be far more than that.

Export scenario: Bangladesh to UK

Export to the UK increased by 75% within FY 2011-12 to FY 2018-19. It was $2.4 billion in 2011-12 and $4.2 billion in 2018-19. However, in 2019-20 it dropped to $3.5 billion, a 17% decrease with $ 700 million worth of export lost in that year alone.

Export scenario: Bangladesh to Spain

Before the Covid19 pandemic, Bangladesh’s export to Spain grew 150% in just seven years. The extraordinary growth took Bangladesh’s export to Spain to the 2.6-billion-dollar mark in 2018-19, which was 1.1 billion dollars in 2011-12. With a 14% decrease in 2019-2020 compared to 2018-19, 365 million dollars have been lost in Spain and growth adjusted amount of loss is expected to be much higher.

Export scenario: Bangladesh to France

In the fiscal year 2018-19 export earnings from France was 2.2 billion dollars. Due to the covid19 pandemic the earnings in 2019-20 came down to 1.7 billion dollars. More than 0.5 billion dollars reduction on a year-on-year basis. However, the growth adjusted amount can be higher as the growth in export from 2011-12 to 2018-19 was steadily upward, increasing 57% in 7 years.

Export scenario: Bangladesh to Italy

In the fiscal year 2018-19 export earnings from Italy was 1.6 billion dollars. Due to the covid19 pandemic the earnings in 2019-20 came down to 1.3 billion dollars; more than a 300-million-dollar reduction on a year on year basis.

See the export scenario for any country from the interactive dashboard below

To see the Bangladesh's export (goods) to any country from the dasboard above, select a country from the drop down list. After selection, click anywhare in the dashboard to collapse the list. X axis of the chart in the dashboard represents fiscal years, Y axis represents total export in million dollar amount. White dotted line in middle of the chart represents the average export in the observed fiscal years and yellow line represents the value of export in fiscal years.

This report only focused on 'goods export' in a fiscal year.

The data collected from Export Promotion Bureau